What Is EV?

Expected value, or EV for short, is a mathematical concept that is used to evaluate the average outcome of a particular decision or action. In the context of casino bonuses, EV is used to determine the overall value of a bonus offer, and to help players make informed decisions about whether or not to accept it.

Bonuses are offered by the vast majority of online casinos both to new players to initially attract them to the casino and to sign up, and to existing players to encourage them to continue to deposit & play. They’re claimed by nearly all online casino players in some shape or form and so it’s very important that you understand the value of the bonuses before claiming them so that you know whether or not they’re worth accepting in the first place.

What Is Expected Value?

Expected value is a measure of the average outcome of a particular decision or action, based on all possible outcomes and their corresponding probabilities. It is calculated by multiplying the value of each outcome by its probability of occurring, and then summing up all of the products.

For example, if you were to flip a coin, the expected value of the coin flip would be 0.5, because the probability of getting heads is 0.5 and the probability of getting tails is also 0.5. The expected value of a coin flip is the average outcome you would expect to get if you were to flip the coin many times.

How Is Expected Value Used In Casino Bonuses?

Expected value is used in casino bonuses to determine the overall value of a bonus offer. A bonus offer with a high expected value is considered to be more valuable than one with a low expected value. In general, bonuses with a higher expected value are considered to be better deals for players, as they provide a greater return on investment over time.

Factors That Affect Expected Value Of Casino Bonuses

There are several factors that can affect the expected value of a casino bonus, including the size of the bonus, the wagering requirements, and the house edge of the games.

• Bonus size: A larger bonus will typically have a higher expected value than a smaller bonus. However, it’s important to keep in mind that larger bonuses often come with stricter wagering requirements, which can offset the value of the bonus.
• Wagering requirements: The lower the wagering requirements, the higher the expected value of the bonus. This is because a lower wagering requirement means that the player will need to wager less in order to clear the bonus, and thus the player will be able to keep more of the bonus winnings.
• House edge: The lower the house edge of the games, the higher the expected value of the bonus. This is because a lower house edge means that the player has a better chance of winning, and thus will be able to clear the bonus more easily.

Using these three factors, many people use the following equation to determine the Expected Value (EV) of a casino bonus.

EV = Bonus (£) – (Wagering Requirement (£) x House Edge (%))

However, this equation isn’t 100% correct as it doesn’t take several factors into consideration that may be applicable to your bonus.

Some of these additional factors include:

• Type of bonus eg. Cash used first, Blended Wager etc
• The amount you must deposit in order to receive the bonus
• The variance of the game you are playing to meet the wagering requirements
• If there is a winnings cap on the bonus
• The stake size you are using to meet the wagering requirements

Casino Bonus EV Calculator

All of the above factors play a part in determining the EV of a casino bonus which is why it is not possible to accurately calculate the EV using a simple equation. Instead, we recommend using one of the several dedicated casino bonus EV calculators that are available online. Some require a subscription as part of a service but there are free versions available.

Conclusion

Expected value is a useful tool for evaluating the overall value of a casino bonus. It allows players to make informed decisions about whether or not to accept a bonus offer, based on the average outcome they can expect to get from it. In general, bonuses with a higher expected value are considered to be better deals for players, as they provide a greater return on investment over time. However, players should keep in mind that the expected value of a bonus is just one factor to consider when evaluating a bonus offer, and should also take into account other factors such as the size of the bonus, the wagering requirements, and the house edge of the games.

Additionally, players should be aware that expected value is only an average outcome and that individual results may vary. It’s important for players to understand their own gambling habits and budget accordingly. It is not advisable to chase bonuses with high expected value if it leads to overspending or irresponsible gambling.